The Effect of the Demographic Change on Crime Trends and the Work of Police, Justice, Detention and Probation Service

11/2009 - 11/2012

Dirk Baier (head of project)
Michael Hanslmaier, M.A. Sociology
Katharina Stoll, Diploma Social Science

The Bavarian Ministry of the Interior
The Bavarian Ministry of Justice and Consumer Protection
The Ministry of Justice Brandenburg
The Ministry of the Interior Brandenburg
Lower Saxony Ministry of Internal Affairs, Sports and Integration
Lower Saxony Ministry of Justice
Ministry of Justice Saxony-Anhalt
Ministry of the Interior Saxony-Anhalt
Own resources

Prof. Dr. Stefanie Kemme, Universität Hamburg
Prof. Dr. Thomas Görgen, German Police University

The project deals with the challenges for the institutions of social control that evolve due to the changing demographic composition of the population. Until 2030 in Germany the number of elderly people over 64 years compared to the working population will strongly increase.
On the state level, however, this development will diverge. Whereas the elderly dependency ratio  in Bavaria will rise from 30 to 49 in the period from the year 2005 to 2030, it will double in Brandenburg from 35 to 70. These massive changes in the population structure will not remain without consequences for the amount of crime: younger people commit much more crimes than the elderly.
The aim of the project is to develop forecasts and future scenarios concerning the development of crime, number of convicts and prison population on a nationwide level and in particular at the level of the participating States. Especially the medium and long-term resource planning of government organizations requires assumptions about future capacity needs. The starting point for the analysis and the base for the forecasts is the assessment of the retrospective development of delinquency based on police crime statistics, prosecution statistics and prison statistics. Besides the demographic change there are other aspects that have to be considered in the analysis. On the one hand the activities and resource facilities of police and justice influence the registered crime. On the other hand it is also determined by the social structure and economic processes.




Publications

Kemme, S., M. Hanslmaier & K. Stoll (2011): Kriminalitätsentwicklung 1995 bis 2008: Ergebnisse einer Expertenbefragung. Zwischenbericht des Projekts
„Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Kriminalitätsentwicklung sowie die Arbeit der Polizei, der Strafjustiz, des Strafvollzugs und der Bewährungshilfe“ [Crime development from 1995 until 2008: Results from Expert Interviews.] KFN-Forschungsbericht 112. Hannover: KFN. (download)      

Kemme, S. & M. Hanslmaier (2011). Lassen sich Auswirkungen demografischer Veränderungen bereits in den Kriminal- und Rechtspflegestatistiken feststellen? [Are Consequences of the Demographic Change yet Detectable in Crime and Justice Statistics?] Bewährungshilfe, 58(1), 5-23.

Kemme, S. (2011). Kriminalität und demografischer Wandel - Entwicklungen in Deutschland seit Mitte der 1990er Jahre [Delinquency and demographic change – Developments in Germany Since the mid-1990s.]. SIAK-Journal, 3, 4-13.

Kemme, S. (2011). Gefangenenstruktur im Wandel: Welchen Einfluss haben demografische Veränderungen? [The Changing Structure of Prison Population: Which Impact do Demographic Changes have?] Justiznewsletter, 8 (14), 17-21.

Giebel, M. & Kemme, S. (2010). Weniger Jugendliche, weniger (Jugend-) kriminalität, weniger Polizei(-bedarf)? [Fewer Adolescents, Less (Youth) Crime, Less Police (Demand) ?] In Bernhard Frevel und Rüdiger Bredthauer (Hg.): Empirische Polizeiforschung XII: Demografischer Wandel und Polizei. Frankfurt a.M.: Verlag für die Polizeiwissenschaft: Schriften zur Empirischen Polizeiforschung. 71-97.